Share This

Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts

Saturday, August 26, 2023

Reversing declining R&D investments

 The country's gross expenditure on the segment has been on downtrend in the past couple of years. More investments are needed in high-growth areas that will yield strong returns.


SIX decades ago, Malaysia was richer than South Korea and Taiwan.

But today, the country is behind these two technology superpowers and is still trying to break out of the middle-income trap.

Taiwan overtook Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the mid-70s, and not long after that, South Korea overtook Malaysia in the mid-80s.

A major reason for Malaysia lagging behind Taiwan and South Korea is the failure to invest adequately in research and development (R&D) that ultimately resulted in low local technology creation.

This is reflected in the number of patents granted, as mentioned in the World Intellectual Property Indicators report.

In 2022, a total of 6,876 patents were granted in Malaysia, out of which almost 85% were granted to non-residents.

In contrast, South Korea granted 145,882 patents in 2022. Three out of four patents in that year were granted to residents.

Official figures show that Malaysia’s gross expenditure on R&D (GERD) has been declining in the past several years, even before the Covid-19 pandemic.

In fact, the country’s GERD per GDP dropped to just 0.95% in 2020, which was the lowest since 2010.For comparison, countries like South Korea, the United States and Japan spent 4.81%, 3.45% and 3.26% of their GDP in 2020 for R&D, respectively.

Notably, China’s GERD per GDP stood at 2.4% in 2020, significantly higher than Malaysia despite having an almost similar GDP per capita.

It is noteworthy that Malaysia is well behind its GERD per GDP target of 3.5% by 2030. The intermediate target is 2.5% by 2025, which is just two years’ away.


Science, Technology and Innovation (Mosti) Minister Chang Lih Kang

In a reply to StarBizWeek, Science, Technology and Innovation (Mosti) Minister Chang Lih Kang acknowledges that the gap to achieve the 2030 target is “stark and significant”.

He also adds that there is a funding shortfall of RM40bil to achieve the 2025 target.

“The slump in GERD before 2020 primarily stems from a dwindling contribution from the business sector, which started around 2016.

“While the government has consistently provided substantial R&D funding, it’s imperative for the business and industry sectors to substantially participate.

“After all, these sectors stand to gain the most from R&D innovations, utilising outcomes to enhance products, refine business processes, and overall drive competitive advantage,” says Chang.

Malaysia’s long-delayed ambition to become a high-income nation relies on the country’s ability to effectively spend on R&D efforts in high-potential areas.

Increased R&D efforts that would lead to greater technology adoption in the country are highly necessary, considering that Malaysia is set to become a super-aged country by 2056.

Amid declining fertility rates, more of the country’s workforce must be automated and mechanised to avert any crisis in the future.

Mosti Minister Chang also says that a higher expenditure on R&D serves as a foundational indicator in many global indices like the Global Innovation Index (GII) and the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI).

In the Madani Economy framework unveiled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim last month, these two indices were mentioned as some of the key performance indicators (KPIs), moving forward.

Anwar envisages Malaysia to be among the top 20 countries in GII by 2025. As for GCI, Malaysia aims to rank in the top 12 within the next 10 years.

It is understandable why Anwar hopes to improve Malaysia’s ranking in such indices.

“These indices are meticulously scrutinised by foreign investors when determining potential investment destinations,” according to Chang.

Spending it right

A similarity between South Korea and Malaysia is the fact that both governments have in the past invested significantly in building local industries, including for R&D efforts.

“Chaebols” or South Korean mega-conglomerates were once small businesses that received generous support from the government since the early 1960s. This has helped to nurture internationally recognised brands such as Samsung and Hyundai.

Similarly, Malaysia has also channelled billions of ringgit into profit-driven entities such as car manufacturer Proton and semiconductor wafer foundry Silterra.

However, unlike in South Korea, these heavy industrialisation projects that were introduced during the administration of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad failed to sustain commercially and continued to depend on government handouts.

These two projects have since been privatised. Proton Holdings Bhd made a rebound after China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding emerged in the carmaker with a 49.1% stake.

Meanwhile, Silterra was sold to Dagang NeXchange Bhd (Dnex) and Beijing Integrated Circuit Advanced Manufacturing and High-End Equipment Equity Investment Fund Centre (Limited Partnership) – also known as CGP Fund.

Dnex holds a 60% stake in Silterra, while CGP Fund owns the remaining 40%.

An analyst explains that the failure of Proton and Silterra was the result of continued government funding in the past, even if the management did not achieve tangible results.

“South Korea was different. You have a set of KPIs outlined along the timeline. If you don’t perform, you won’t get the money,” the analyst says.

Like it or not, the government has a big role to play in stimulating R&D efforts in the market.

The US government, for instance, is a major funder of R&D and is also a major user of the new innovations that may have yet to receive demand from the public.

It is noteworthy that the Internet and the global positioning system (GPS) began as projects under the US Department of Defence.

It is typical of the private sector to innovate and to create new products only when they foresee market opportunities.

With shareholders’ ultimate focus being on profit, the private sector may have its limitations when it comes to risk-taking.

In the case of Malaysia, businesses do not reinvest an adequate amount of their profits into R&D, despite the fact that Malaysian companies retain high operating profits.

In 2022, the gross operating surplus of businesses constituted 67% of GDP, which increased from 62.6% in 2021.

The easy supply of cheap foreign workers, particularly before the pandemic, has further allowed Malaysian companies to avoid R&D and automating a large part of their operations.

Distinguished professor of economics Datuk Rajah Rasiah agrees that the domestic private sector does not invest adequately in R&D.

“As firms move up the technology trajectory towards frontier innovations, they expect strong support from the embedding ecosystem, especially the science, technology, and innovation (STI) infrastructure.

“Although Malaysia did attempt to create the STI infrastructure after 1991, almost all of them (such as Mimos, Science and Technology Parks and the incubators in them as well as the Malaysian Technology Development Corp) were not effectively governed, and hence, they have become white elephants.

“Given the lack of such support and ineffective governance of incentives and grants in the selection, monitoring and appraisal of their output, private firms are unconvinced that attempts to upgrade to participate in R&D will materialise,” he says.

Techpreneur Tan Aik Keong also points out that Malaysian companies face fundraising difficulties for R&D purposes, especially small and medium enterprises and unlisted companies.

Tan was recently appointed as a member of the National Digital Economy and Fourth Industrial Revolution Council. He is also the CEO of ACE Market-listed Agmo Holdings Bhd.

“Investors and lenders may hesitate to support R&D initiatives due to the inherent risks and uncertainties associated with these endeavours.

“The lack of a guaranteed correlation between R&D investment and immediate revenue generation can lead to doubts about the return on investment (ROI),” he says.Tan opines that the lack of “proven success stories” whereby R&D investments in Malaysia resulted in significant ROIs contributed to the scepticism.

In addition, he says that companies with no prior experience in R&D investments would find it challenging to start investing heavily in R&D.

“For listed entities, there is relatively more flexibility in terms of fundraising for R&D purposes.

“Capital market instruments such as private placements and rights issues can be leveraged to raise larger sums of funds to support R&D initiatives.

“Fortunately, the availability of matching grants from agencies like Mosti, MDEC, Miti, and MTDC can provide much-needed financial support and incentive for companies to invest in R&D activities,” he says.

Acknowledging the challenges, Mosti Minister Chang says that alternative financing mechanisms are being considered

A notable example is the Malaysia Science Endowment (MSE), which has set an ambitious goal of raising RM2bil.

“MSE is more than an alternative R&D funding for the nation.

“The working model is to utilise its interest, which will be generated from the investment.

“The fund would be optimised further through a matching fund mechanism – bringing quadruple helix stakeholders together to focus on solution-driven R&D and prioritising based on the nation’s needs,” he says.

Mosti, with Akademi Sains Malaysia, is currently actively developing a fund-raising mechanism to establish the MSE.

In addition, Chang says the government will continue to deploy a myriad of fiscal incentives that include tax exemptions and double deductions on R&D expenditures.“The overarching goal is to promote a symbiotic relationship where both the private sector and the government collaborate seamlessly to advance Malaysia’s R&D aspirations,” he says.

Lack of quality researchers?

R&D efforts are not just about investing a large sum of money. They will only yield best results if they are supported by qualified, world-class researchers.

Unfortunately, in the case of Malaysia, brain drain has become a major challenge in pushing for greater R&D.

The ongoing decline in interest among schoolchildren in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) studies will only worsen the situation in the future.

Agmo’s Tan notes that the declining interest in science subjects among students threatens the availability of skilled researchers, scientists, and engineers needed for a thriving R&D ecosystem.

“The potential for brain drain is a legitimate concern if Malaysia does not foster an environment conducive to R&D growth,” he says.

In 2020, Malaysia saw a decline in the number of researchers per 10,000 labour force at only 31.4 persons, as compared to 74 persons in 2016.

At 31.4 persons, this was the lowest level since 2010.

Rajah says that Malaysia lacks quality R&D researchers, as well as engineers and technicians to support serious R&D participation.

“Malaysia’s researchers and R&D personnel in the labour force fall way below that of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and China.

“In fact, this is one of the major reasons why national and foreign firms participate little in R&D activities in Malaysia,” he adds.

When asked about the commercialisation of research done by Malaysian universities, Rajah says the commercialisation ratio against grants received in Malaysia is very low.

This is compared to the Silicon Valley and Route 128 in the US, the science parks in Taiwan, and the Vinnova targeted areas in Sweden.

However, Rajah says the blame for the low rate is mistakenly placed on the scientists.

“Most universities in Malaysia focus on scientific publications, which is a major KPI for them. Malaysia does well on scientific publications.

“Mosti and the Higher Education Ministry should make intellectual property (IP) and commercialisation equally important.

“In doing so, the government must tie grants and incentives to link researchers and firms by offering matching grants so that the research undertaken by the scientists are targeted to the pursuit of IPs and monetary returns.

“Firms in this case will ensure that the 1:1 sharing of funds with the government brings returns for them – widely undertaken successfully in Japan, the Netherlands and Taiwan,” he says.

At the same time, Rajah suggests a critical appraisal of previous grants approved to ensure that mistakes are not repeated.

CLICK TO ENLARGECLICK TO ENLARGE

In further strengthening the country R&D expertise, there are calls to improve universities’ curriculum more holistically.

Technology consultant Mohammad Shahir Shikh said there is a gap and misalignment between industries’ requirements versus theoretical research in new knowledge discovery by the universities.

He calls for greater partnership between universities and the industry, including for improving business operations via the integration of new technologies.

Mohammad Shahir has previously served as an engineer with chipmaker AMD for 11 years.

He raises concerns about the severe shortage of STEM graduates in Malaysia to serve the needs of the industries.

“The country’s target was to have 500,000 STEM graduates by 2020, but we now have only 68,000 such graduates.

“Even then, the highest number of unemployed graduates here is from the STEM stream.

“My proposal to the government is to start assisting potential schools and STEM students become familiar with scientific terms in English and improve their communication skills,” he adds.

Mohammad Shahir points out that about 30% of Finland’s workforce consists graduates from the STEM stream.

“This is a priority that needs to be addressed if we want to achieve our national innovation goals,” he says.

National STEM Association president and founder Prof Datuk Dr Noraini Idris laments that only about 15% of form four students take pure science subjects, namely physics, chemistry, biology and additional mathematics.

The percentage has fallen from abogaut 19% back in 2019.

“This is alarming. We need more students to take pure sciences if we want to create more scientists, data analysts and researchers for the future.

Noraini calls for a complete revamp in the national education system, whereby “STEM culture” is fostered among children from a very young age.

“My team and I have proposed the “cradle-to-career” model which instils the interest for STEM from nurseries and preschool to tertiary education.

“It also needs formal and informal support, whereby informal refers to family, peers and community to foster the interest in STEM.

“For this to happen, we need the effort of various ministries and not just the Education Ministry,” she says.

It is high time, according to Noraini, to set up a department for STEM directly under the Prime Minister’s Department to coordinate the joint-efforts across ministries.As the country works towards improving STEM’s acceptance, Agmo’s Tan says Malaysia must put more emphasis on R&D efforts in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, extended reality and cloud computing, among others.

“We must encourage the establishment of R&D centres by high-tech companies through attractive incentives,” he adds.

Looking ahead, the government has a lot of issues on its plate to address.

To reboot the economy, it is not only about spending more money on R&D.

More importantly, every ringgit invested must be spent efficiently in high-growth research areas that will yield strong ROIs.

Source link

Related posts:

Malaysia's education policy must champion Meritocracy instead of Mediocrity system

Let’s talk economy – the sequel of education

The pump-prime our financial situation, we need a massive investment to revamp and rebuild our education 
  

Thursday, August 3, 2023

Higher growth projected for 2023

Lee said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

The commendable first-quarter showing augurs well, says the Socio-economic Research Centre

'STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE KEY TO SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY AND RINGGIT' - Lee Heng Lee 

KUALA LUMPUR: The combination of declining exports, persistently high core inflation and cautious consumer spending will likely see the economy experiencing a moderation in growth in the second half of the year (2H23).

Despite anticipating a deceleration in economic growth in the upcoming quarters, Socio-economic Research Centre (SERC) has raised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.1% previously, to reflect the strength in the first-quarter (1Q23) economic growth.

The GDP expanded by 5.6% in 1Q23, exceeding the 4.8% growth achieved in 1Q22, thanks to sustained domestic demand underpinned by strong private expenditure and improvement in labour market conditions.

SERC executive director Lee Heng Guie said the robust consumer spending witnessed last year may not be replicated this year due to the high interest rate environment and more cautious consumer spending.

“The cash stimulus has already been spent and the spending boom, such as the ‘revenge spending’ that we saw post-pandemic, has already faded,” he said during SERC’S media briefing on the quarterly economic tracker for 2Q23.

Lee pointed out that the country’s exports had also started to ease as global demand weakens under the strain of high inflation and interest rates.

For 1H23, exports contracted by 4.5% y-o-y and Lee projects exports to decline by between 5% and 7% for the full year on the back of lower demand.

With these factors at play, SERC expects GDP to grow in a range of between 4% and 5% in 2H23, with consumer demand continuing to be the key growth driver in the remaining months of the year.

He added the elevated base effect in 2H22 will present another challenge to the 2H23 GDP performance.

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), Lee believes the current rate of 3% is at an “accommodative and supportive” level for sustainable economic activity.

He said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

“Any change to the OPR is dependent on how resilient the economy is and how consumer inflation behaves.

“I think the current level is just right, (as) it will not significantly hurt the people.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit.” Lee Heng Guie

“It is still supporting the economy, but does not overburden businesses and the people. Even though central banks are likely to end their rate hike cycles, it does not necessarily imply that they will reduce rates either,” he explained.

Lee expects most central banks to likely keep interest rates at current levels till inflation, both headline and core, subsides to a “comfortable range”.

In the majority of advanced economies, a comfortable range of inflation is around 2%, Lee observed. Although headline inflation has eased in Malaysia, Lee stressed the battle against inflation has not been won.

“This is because subsidy rationalisation is still on the table of the government. The government needs to address that following the state elections to control the budget deficit,” Lee noted.

Given the volatility in crude oil prices, Lee said the current oil subsidy scheme was fiscally unsustainable and would further contribute to deficits.

He added the ringgit had strengthened against the currencies of Japan, China, Australia, Taiwan and India since the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first federal fund rate hike in March last year.

However, against the greenback, the local unit is among a basket of currencies that have experienced a significant weakening after having declined by about 7.4% since the start of the rate hike cycle.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit,” Lee stressed.

He said the proposed progressive wage model (PWM) plan, which is currently under consideration by the government, is a right step towards a productivity-linked wage system which will foster competitiveness by forging a stronger correlation between wages and productivity.

Lee, however, contends that a more comprehensive and practical analysis should be undertaken on the plan by a tripartite body, which includes representatives from the government, employers and employees.

This is due to the presence of valid concerns and areas of uncertainty within the proposal, such as whether the PWM would be extended to foreign workers and specific sectors.

In keeping the economy resilient, Lee emphasised on the importance of private investment.

He reiterated that private investment not only helped stimulate economic growth, but also generated jobs and thus benefiting both the community and the nation as a whole.

Speaking on the US economy, Lee believes that it is still resilient, citing the strength of its labour market and wage growth as indications. However, he said consumer spending remained robust and asserts inflationary pressure.

“In the United States, headline inflation has not reached the targeted 2% level, while core inflation remains sticky.

“This is something the Fed would be observing. If there is risk of inflation resurgence, it may still continue to increase rates,” Lee said.

Globally, Lee pointed out that the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector has continued its downtrend, sustaining below the 50-point threshold. The services sector, meanwhile, recorded a slight slowdown in its latest figures.

“We are worried the slowdown in the manufacturing sector has broadened and impacted the services sector,” Lee added.

On world trade volume and industrial production, Lee pointed out that both have been moderating, owing to slower demand. “This is why we saw a decline in exports for regional countries, including Malaysia, recently.”

The Star - StarBiz By KIRENNESH NAIR kirennesh@thestar.com.my 3 Aug 2023

Source link


Malaysia emerged resilient amid Covid-19 challenges, says World Bank
Related:


Malaysia emerged resilient amid Covid-19 challenges, says World Bank



Related posts:



Tuesday, January 31, 2023

China's Rise to Economic Superpower, economy stands out in global arena

China's Rise to Economic Superpower 

World Economy

As the world still grapples with supply-chain backlogs (partially) caused by China’s strict Covid-19 policies, it has become painfully obvious how vulnerable the global economy is to national or even regional disruptions, especially if they happen in China, the world’s number one supplier of goods.

Over the past few decades, China has grown to become the world’s manufacturing hub and largest goods exporter by a significant margin, turning it from emerging market into economic superpower. According to estimates from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the country will account for 18.8 percent of the world’s GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP). That’s up from just 8.1 percent two decade ago, when both the United States and the EU were miles ahead of China’s economic output.

Over the past 20 years, both the U.S. and the European Union have seen their economic superiority challenged, as new powers, such as China, India and others have emerged. While the U.S. saw its share of global GDP decline from 19.8 to 15.8 percent between 2002 and 2022, the EU’s share dropped from 19.9 to 14.8 percent of the same period.

The gap between China, the U.S. and the EU will likely widen over the next few years, as the economic outlook for the latter two is cloudy with a chance of recession, while China is expected to continue growing at mid-single-digit growth rates.

By Felix Richter 

Felix Richter
Data Journalist
felix.richter@statista.com +49 (40) 284 841 557

Source link

 

China’s economy stands out in global arena 

 

Steady trade: Workers use computer terminals to monitor remote operations at a container port in Tianjin. China has now become a major trading partner for more than 140 countries and regions, with its total trade of goods up 7.7% y-o-y in 2022, topping the world for six consecutive years. — AP 

 Annual average growth of 4.5% between 2020 and 2022, outpacing the world average of around 2%

BEIJING: In its three-year-long fight against Covid-19, China posted outstanding results in economic development and epidemic control, reinforcing its status as a leading engine for the global economy.

From 2020 to 2022, China’s economy posted an annual average growth of 4.5%, outpacing the world average of around 2%, according to Yuan Da, director of the Department of National Economy of the National Development and Reform Commission.

In 2022, the economy grew 3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to a record high of 121 trillion yuan (US$18 trillion or RM76.3 trillion), with the increment standing at 6.1 trillion yuan (RM3.8 trillion), equivalent to the economic aggregate of a medium-sized country.

It also marks a new and higher level in terms of economic aggregate after the Chinese economy topped the thresholds of 100 trillion yuan (RM62.5 trillion) and 110 trillion yuan (RM68.8 trillion) in 2020 and 2021, respectively – maintaining its position well as the world’s second-largest economy.

Analysts attributed the hard-won results to the country’s effective coordination in fighting Covid-19 and its economic fallouts simultaneously.

Thanks to effective virus control and timely pro-growth policies, China’s economy has quickly emerged from the epidemic-induced slump and consolidated its recovery momentum for a brighter outlook.

To cope with the constantly evolving epidemic situation, China has been dynamically optimising its control measures while enhancing the treatment and vaccination capacity, effectively safeguarding the lives and health of its 1.4 billion population at minimum costs.As of Jan 13, 92.9% of the Chinese population has been fully vaccinated, with more than 90% of people above 60 covered by vaccination.

With Omicron much less pathogenic and deadly, China, in December last year, announced ten new measures to lift numerous Covid-19 restrictions. On Jan 8, its management of Covid-19 was officially downgraded from Class A to Class B.

Less than one month after the optimisation of Covid-19 response measures in December 2022, China reported declining numbers of fever patients and critical Covid-19 cases as both had passed the peak. In the just-concluded Spring Festival holiday, China’s consumption made a strong comeback.

During the week-long holiday, sales revenue of China’s consumption-related sectors rose 12.2% from the same holiday period in 2022. Its cinemas sold 129 million tickets, generating a whopping revenue of 6.76 billion yuan (RM4.2bil), the second highest-grossing to date.

Wen Bin, the chief economist with China Minsheng Bank, said that warming demand at home would propel the turnaround in the Chinese economy this year and estimated the country’s full-year gross domestic product growth at around 5.5%.

Aside from the overall economic growth, China also made significant headway in maintaining consumer price stability, guaranteeing food and energy security, and improving people’s livelihoods.

In 2022, China’s consumer price index grew by 2%, a fraction of the increases reported in the United States, the eurozone and Britain. It is also lower than those of other emerging economies.

Amid a global food crisis, the country has secured a bumper harvest for the 19th year in a row, with its grain output at about 686.53 billion kg in 2022, up 0.5% from 2021.

A total of 11.86 million, 12.69 million, and 12.06 million new urban jobs were created in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, all surpassing the targets set for each year.

Despite the gloomy global investment environment, China remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in the world.

Foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland, in actual use, expanded 6.3% y-o-y to 1.23 trillion yuan (RM768.8bil) in 2022.

China has now become a major trading partner for more than 140 countries and regions, with its total trade of goods up 7.7% y-o-y in 2022, topping the world for six consecutive years.

Recently, multiple international investment banks and financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Barclays, and Natixis, have upwardly revised their forecast for China’s economic growth rate in 2023, betting on the country’s rosy prospects and strong resilience. — Xinhua

Source link

Related posts: 

Global Economic Prospects report: Sharp, Long-lasting Slowdown to Hit Developing Countries Hard 

Vigorous Spring Festival holiday back in full swing China sees a vigorous Spring Fes...

 

Piloting spaceship Earth in the new year 2023

Southeast Asia, like much of the rest of the world, is losing patience with King Dollar. The westernization of the world’s reserve curr..