Share This

Showing posts with label Geopolitics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geopolitics. Show all posts

Sunday, September 8, 2024

Bretton Woods should heed the cries for fair play or go, how China can help reshape the global financial system

 Is Bretton Woods fit for the 21st century?


America is financed by the rest of the world because of the hegemomic of the US dollar.

The world's largest economy has moved from a giver of global public goods to a taker of global resources.



Probably the best way to increase global funding is to raise the capital of the global multilateral development banks like the World Bank, Asia Development Bank, etc.

In July 1944, delegates from 44 countries gathered in a UN-sponsored conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to decide on a post-World War II monetary and financial order. 

In the closing speech of the gathering, then US Treasury secretary Henry Morgenthau concluded that the conference had succeeded in addressing the twin “economic evils – the competitive currency devaluation and destructive impediments to trade” that led to the war.

To prevent competitive devaluation, the Bretton Woods conference established the fixed but adjustable exchange rate system, which was based on the US dollar linked to gold and capital controls, securing funding from a newly created World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

The global free trade mechanism was negotiated first through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which decades later became the World Trade Organization.

The Bretton Woods negotiations were led by the US chief delegate Harry Dexter White and the eminent British economist John Maynard Keynes. Keynes argued unsuccessfully for the creation of an new international currency called the bancor, whereas the United States preferred to use its own currency.


In 1944, the US had the largest share of world GDP and was a major creditor to economies suffering from the destruction of war. It is no surprise that the Bretton Woods order was largely US-led and designed.


This Bretton Woods structure lasted until 1971, when rising US fiscal and trade deficits led US President Richard Nixon to delink the US dollar from gold at the fixed price of US$35 to one ounce of gold. 

After flexible exchange rates became the global norm, the US continued to be financed by the rest of the world because of the hegemonic position of the US dollar. It was protected by the might of the US military and its status as the strongest economy, including being the consumer of last resort.

Eighty years later, the US share of world GDP has been pared down to 26 per cent by current exchange rates but the US dollar remains as mighty as ever.

People walk past an image of US dollar bills outside a currency exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya, on February 16. Photo: Reuters
People walk past an image of US dollar bills outside a currency exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya, on February 16. Photo: Reuters

Unfortunately, having the US dollar act as the global reserve currency is both a blessing and curse. The US is able to fund its fiscal and trade deficits easily because the rest of the world prefers to hold the US dollar.

But running protracted deficits means that the US net liability to the rest of the world is now US$21 trillion, or about 20 per cent of world GDP, with a gross sovereign debt of US$35 trillion, or roughly one third of world GDP. Fiscal debt cost is rising as interest expenses will rise from 3.4 per cent of GDP in financial year 2025 to 4.1 per cent by 2034.

The irony is that the world’s largest debtor absorbs more of the world’s natural and financial capital that encourages global consumption to drive growth. Since increased levels of consumption ultimately generates more carbon emissions, the current model is neither ecologically nor financially sustainable.

To address these global imbalances, the United Nations has suggested that a “just transition” requires US$2.4 trillion annually to fund clean energy and climate resilience. Where is this money going to come from?


What is climate finance, and why is it crucial to the global energy transition?

This is both a flow and a stock problem. The annual shortfall, or flow, can either be funded from an increase in taxation or a cut in spending. The stock issue is whether there is enough wealth to be taxed or used to fund the needed climate action.
There is growing momentum behind an initiative proposed by French economist Gabriel Zucman, in which a minimum wealth tax of 2 per cent would raise US$200-US$250 billion per year globally from 3,000 billionaires who currently pay little to no tax. Current evidence suggests ultra-high-net worth individuals have an observed pre-tax rate of return to wealth of 7.5 per cent on average per year during the last four decades, while the current effective tax rate is equivalent to roughly 0.3 per cent of their wealth.

Alternatively, the Austrian Institute for Economic Research thinks that a global financial transactions tax of 0.1 per cent could yield between US$238 billion and US$419 billion per year. Needless to say, the rich who control the electoral process in countries across the world will not allow such tax increases.



There are two big-ticket items in global fiscal spending which could be cut. The largest is subsidies on fossil fuels, which were US$7 trillion or 7.1 per cent of global GDP in 2022. On top of that, global military expenditure was US$2.4 trillion in 2023.

Perhaps the best way to increase global funding is to raise the capital of the global multilateral development banks such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. If the countries which control the special drawing rights of the IMF can apply their US$650 billion in 2021 to increase the bank’s capital by eight times the leverage, these multilateral development banks can increase their lending by about US$5 trillion.


However, doing so would require these countries to agree that this is a priority, which could be unlikely given the current global atmosphere leaning towards protectionism and isolationism.


In short, the 21st century requires multilateral cooperation in dealing with mutual existential challenges involving climate warming, social imbalances and serious polarisation. If the Bretton Woods framework does not serve the Global South because the established powers are unwilling to reform it, do not be surprised if a new set of institutions rise to replace it.

Andrew Sheng
Andrew Sheng is a former central banker and financial regulator, currently distinguished fellow at the Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong. He writes widely on Asian perspectives on

Source link 

Open questions | French economist Marc Uzan on how China can help reshape the global financial system

With the US-led financial consensus at a crossroads, economist Marc Uzan says China has role to play in systemic reform

French economist Marc Uzan is executive director and founder of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, a non-profit organisation established in 1994 to address issues related to the world’s financial architecture. He has been working closely with central banks and finance ministries around the world, as well as international organisations such as the International Monetary Fund and the Group of 20, to bring stakeholders together to attempt to fix the system.

In this latest interview in the Open Questions series, Uzan reflects on the decades of change since the paradigmatic Bretton Woods conference in 1944, and the role China and other emerging economies will play in the global financial system during an era of heightened unilateralism and confrontation. This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.
As suggested by the name of your organisation, the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, why did you think that the Bretton Woods system should be restructured back in 1994? Can it be?

This question brought a multitude of thoughts about the objectives of the 44 nations whose representatives gathered at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in the summer of 1944 to establish a new economic order.

The world has changed considerably since then. Instead of a system of fixed exchange rates among major currencies, we now have a mixed system with major floating currency areas but fixed rates among smaller countries. At that time, we had capital controls, and now we are a global financial market. And from a small group of 44 countries that became the founding members of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Worl 

U.S. debt just hit $35 trillion. Is it putting the global economy at 

risk ...

This nation’s gross cumulative debt has hit $35 trillion — a number so large, the International Monetary Fund warns that it’s putting the entire global economy at risk. 
https://www.marketplace.org/2024/08/13/u-s-debt-just-hit-35-trillion-is-it-putting-the-global-economy-at-risk/
The National Debt is now more than $35 trillion. What does that mean?

Friday, August 16, 2024

US tech export controls backfire, drive companies into ‘death spiral’

 

The restrictions on US technology exports to China are encountering mounting opposition due to the growing financial losses of American companies and the burgeoning independent innovation capabilities of Chinese companies, ultimately ruling out the possibility of the US being able to force allies into alignment on further export controls over China.

California Democrats are calling on the Biden administration to freeze reported plans to impose fresh restrictions on US technology exports to China, arguing that a further round of controls "could send longstanding US companies into a death spiral," Reuters reported on Wednesday.

To be clear, the US politicians' use of the term "death spiral" does not necessarily mean that they are opposed to the tech suppression of China, but rather highlights their deep concern about the potential harm that measures targeting China could inflict on US companies. 

Such concerns are not groundless. For example, a recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York pointed out that US export control measures targeting China have had a negative impact on American companies, as they have caused supply chain disruptions, raised operating costs and reduced US companies' competitiveness. 

The total market value of all US companies affected by export controls on China has been reduced by an estimated $130 billion, the report noted.

There is a growing awareness within US political and business circles that Washington's technology export controls on China are encountering resistance and becoming increasingly ineffective. 

In a recent article published by The National Interest magazine, Brian J. Cavanaugh, who once served on the White House National Security Council, wrote that addressing China's rise as a global leader in electronics manufacturing requires a comprehensive strategy that encompasses economic policy, technological innovation and national security measures. He acknowledged that the US will not defeat China on its own, pointing out that "Washington must reconsider its approach to trade with Beijing, particularly in the electronics sector. Working with allies and partners to develop a coordinated response to China's market practices can help mitigate the risks."

However, regardless of the methods the US may choose to employ in order to enforce its unilateral strategy of stifling China's technology industry, it will be difficult to achieve its goals. This can be attributed to two primary factors. 

First, if US companies are unable to capitalize on the vast Chinese market, businesses in allied nations of the US will become less willing to cooperate with US companies. This is largely due to the fact that China boasts a massive market with a high demand for intermediate products and chips, making it a market that profit-driven companies simply cannot afford to overlook.

Second, the independent innovation of Chinese companies has posed a challenge to the unilateral technological blockade of the US. Washington's technology "iron curtain" has not stopped Chinese companies from developing. On the contrary, US export controls actually have promoted independent innovation in China, helping Chinese companies reduce their dependence on US technology products and enhancing their competitiveness in the global market. For instance, The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Huawei Technologies is close to introducing a new chip for artificial intelligence use. Continuous technological breakthroughs are the best response to US technology restrictions.

This is one of the consequences that US politicians should have anticipated. The reason they turn a blind eye to such possibilities and continue to push for technological "decoupling" from China is because they are reluctant to admit that their technological hegemony will eventually fail. Countries that get used to abusing their power often overestimate their own strength.

Washington also overestimates its influence on allies, as it seems to aim to defeat China through alliances. California Democrats wrote a letter urging the use of "all forms of leverage available to the US government to bring our allies along in aligning their export controls with ours." But this approach is unlikely to succeed. 

Washington's attempt to maintain technological hegemony at the expense of global efficiency and the profits of high-tech multinationals has already caused widespread dissatisfaction, because it not only affects China but also the interests of the global economy and world trade. More importantly, today's China has strong technological capabilities and can make independent breakthroughs. Therefore, the containment strategy of the US, left over from the Cold War era, is bound to fail.

Source link 

RELATED ARTICLES