Leading through change

 

LIKE many Malaysians, I often have to remind my colleagues, neighbours and friends that chat groups are not the best place to discuss politics, especially topics on race relations and religion.

Some of us often forget that participants in chat groups may not necessarily share the same sentiments and enthusiasm. Chat groups are created for specific agendas and purposes, but we do go off-track sometimes.

The workplace is no different. Divergent opinions can lead to creativity and better ways of doing things once a consensus is reached. However, it can also result in strong disagreements and even conflict, potentially breaking a team.

As managers, we are familiar with such situations. Managers must always think about how best to manage divergent opinions in professional settings.

As we come to the end of 2024 and brace for an uncertain 2025, in times of political upheaval, such as the new US president and increased geopolitical tensions affecting every region in the world, it is also a good time to focus on managing our backyard.

With 2025 on the horizon, it is a good time to focus on managing our backyard

The bigger challenge requiring managers’ attention in 2025 is the march of AI

AI will impact every department and section, with no exceptions

Being respectful and professional is always key, according to the Chartered Management Institute’s (CMI) tips for managers – be brave enough to shut down conversations if they make some colleagues feel uncomfortable.

It is important to remind teams that the workplace is not always the best place for heated political discussions, especially if they prove unproductive and inconsequential to work.

The bigger challenge requiring managers’ attention in 2025 is the march of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace. Forget about scheming and untrustworthy politicians.

AI is the number one priority – the better it is managed, the more likely organisations are to adopt it successfully and avoid potential pitfalls. The good news is that the Malaysian Employers Federation (MEF) believes that a significant portion of companies in Malaysia are proactive in this regard.

MEF president Datuk Syed Hussain Syed Husman cites the Cisco AI Readiness Index survey conducted in November last year, which revealed that 46% of Malaysian organisations are prepared to adopt AI technology in line with the Fourth Industrial Revolution (IR 4.0). The study indicated that 13% of these entities are fully ready, with an additional 33% classified as partially ready.

For AI to take off, the positive impact of management and leadership on organisational performance is well-documented, including by Haskel et al (2007) in the United Kingdom and Bloom et al (2010), which found better management led to productivity increases of 13% to 17%.

Data from the UK’S Office of National Statistics shows that companies with high management practices are significantly more likely to drive tech and AI adoption. The research found that companies with top-tier management scores are significantly more likely to adopt AI (37% in the top decile compared to just 3% in the bottom) and to recognise its relevance.

While only 32% of top-performing companies see AI as inapplicable, this figure rises sharply to 74% among those with lower management scores.

However, CMI research reveals that anxiety around AI technologies remains widespread, with over two in five (44%) UK managers reporting concerns raised by colleagues and direct reports about new and emerging AI tools within their organisations.

Alarmingly, fewer than one in 10 managers (9%) believe their organisation is adequately equipped to work with AI, with most receiving little to no training on how to manage or integrate these technologies effectively.

Researchers have found that managers will increasingly play a critical role in interpreting Ai-generated insights, ensuring these align with organisational goals, and making judgment calls that require human intuition and ethical consideration.

AI will impact every department and section, with no exceptions. For the human resources manager, they will need to determine whether AI is writing recruits’ curriculum-vitae and cover letters.

If so, should this be a cause for concern? Are graduates making themselves more attractive to employers by demonstrating a willingness to use AI? Or does this come across as lazy or lacking in creativity?

What does it tell potential employers? Is it deceitful or clever? And should employers be using Ai-detection software?

For news editors in TV studios and newsrooms, shouldn’t they be leading the charge to use AI to eliminate tedious work, allowing staff to focus on creativity and more purposeful tasks?

As we end the year, some companies are still struggling with hybrid working.

It is safe to say that most Malaysian employers have insisted their staff return to the office physically.

This will also be the last year when public listed companies are allowed to conduct annual general meetings for shareholders solely online.

Beginning next year, public listed companies must have physical annual general meetings, with online participation as an additional option.

As we approach the fifth anniversary of the pandemic, the challenge for 2025 will be for managers to ensure they get it right.

For Malaysian managers still holding on to the hybrid workplace, they would know by now if it is still effective. - WONG CHUN WAI Award-winning veteran journalist and Bernama chairman

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Heralding the Golden Age of Cryptocurrency

 ■ Presidentelect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment

■ Analysts projecting Bitcoin to reach US$200,000 by end-2025

■ The outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, but risks remain

THE cryptocurrency world is buzzing with speculation that bitcoin could reach an unprecedented US$200,000 by 2025. While bitcoin has yet to stabilise around the US$100,000 mark, its meteoric rise in 2024 has emboldened investors and analysts to project a bullish future for the world’s leading digital asset.

Bitwise Asset Management, a prominent voice in the crypto sphere, has described the upcoming year as the Golden Age of Crypto.

According to the firm, the regulatory landscape in the United States has significantly improved following the 2024 US elections. President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment.

“We believe we are entering the Golden Age of Crypto,” Bitwise analysts, led by chief investment officer Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen, state in the group’s report.

Bitwise expects Crypto’s magnificent three – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solanato – to hit new all-time highs in 2025, with bitcoin leading the rise to trade above US$200,000.

In addition to Bitwise, other analysts projecting bitcoin to reach US$200,000 include Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, and analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani.

Kendrick forecasts that bitcoin could hit this milestone by the end of 2025, driven by institutional investments in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFS).

In a recent note, he stated that Standard Chartered’s target of US$200,000 by 2025 is “achievable”, adding: “We would become even more bullish if bitcoin experienced accelerated adoption by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds, or the establishment of a potential US strategic reserve fund.

“We anticipate institutional flows to continue at or exceed the pace set in 2024. Microstrategy, for instance, is ahead of its Us$42bil threeyear plan, suggesting its purchases in 2025 will likely match or surpass those of 2024.”

Meanwhile, Bernstein’s analysts attribute their bitcoin price target of US$200,000 by end-2025 to unprecedented demand stemming from spot bitcoin ETFS managed by leading asset managers, according to media reports.

Trump effect

Essentially, crypto has emerged as a clear winner in the 2024 US elections, giving it a brighter regulatory outlook in the United States, Bitwise notes.

For one thing, Trump has announced plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve and nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s earlier comment that “crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay” reflects the administration’s pro-crypto stance. The reshuffling of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has historically taken a sceptical view of digital assets, adds another layer of optimism.

Similarly, Bernstein analysts attribute bitcoin’s rise to Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies. They point out that his plan to position the United States as a global leader in the crypto space and his choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto advocate, to lead the SEC have bolstered market confidence.

Record highs

Bitcoin has since cooled to below US$95,000 at the time of writing, after reaching an alltime high of US$103,992 earlier this month.

This marks a 141.72% increase year-to-date as of Dec 6, 2024. According to Bitwise, the surge was largely driven by the US launch of spot bitcoin ETFS, which set records with Us$33.6bil in inflows within their first year.

Other crypto assets, including Ethereum and Solana, also posted substantial year-to-date gains of 75.77% and 127.71%, respectively. This performance highlights how cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, ethereum and solana, have outpaced all major asset classes in 2024.

Crypto equities mirrored this bullish trend. Companies like Microstrategy and Coinbase saw their shares skyrocket by 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively. In comparison, traditional assets such as the S&P 500 and gold returned 28.07% and 27.65% over the same period, highlighting crypto’s dominance.

Catalysts for next milestone

The factors driving bitcoin’s trajectory towards US$200,000 are multifaceted, Bitwise highlights. The launch of bitcoin

ETFS in 2024 shattered expectations, and Bitwise believes 2025 will see even greater inflows.

“When US spot bitcoin ETFS launched in January 2024, ETF experts forecast the group to see Us$5bil to Us$15bil of inflows in their first year. They passed the higher end of that range within the first six months.

“Since launching, the record-setting ETFS have gathered Us$33.6bil in inflows. We expect 2025’s inflows to top that,” Bitwise says.

Drawing a parallel with gold ETFS launched in 2004, Bitwise notes that ETF inflows typically accelerate in subsequent years.

“The best historical analogy we have for the bitcoin ETF launch is the launch of gold ETFS in 2004. Flows petering out would be unusual,” it explains.

At present, major financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America have yet to fully embrace bitcoin ETFS.

Bitwise anticipates this to change in 2025, unlocking a wave of institutional investments. “The trillions of dollars these firms manage will start flowing into bitcoin ETFS,” Bitwise predicts.

Risk tolerance

While bitcoin remains the focal point, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana are also poised for substantial gains in 2025. Bitwise’s price targets for Ethereum and Solana are US$7,000 and US$750, respectively.

Ethereum, despite its impressive 2024 performance, has faced competition from fastergrowing programmable blockchains.

However, Bitwise anticipates a “narrative shift” as activity on

Layer 2 blockchains and spot Ethereum ETFS gain traction.

Solana’s resurgence, driven by memecoin mania in 2024, is also expected to continue as serious projects migrate to its network, it says.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan points out that the role of crypto in portfolio construction is mostly a function of risk tolerance.

“Cryptocurrencies are inherently unpredictable: there is little visibility into future price movements and blockchain technology, while exciting, also has few barriers to entry, meaning tokens can become obsolete (and therefore worthless) as new ones enter the market with improved functionality,” the US asset management company cautions.

“As a result, for most investors, any allocation to crypto in a portfolio should be kept both small enough to ensure that even in the event of a significant sell-off it does not derail overall portfolio objectives and well diversified,” it adds.

While the outlook for bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, risks remain.

Regulatory clarity, though improving, is still a work in progress.

The global economic environment, including interest-rate policies and geopolitical tensions, could also impact investor sentiment.

However, the convergence of favourable regulatory developments, institutional adoption and technological advancements positions bitcoin as a strong contender to achieve new heights, potentially reshaping the global financial landscape.

By CECILIA kok cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

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Powering up the Global South

 

Collective strength: Tourists taking photos in front of the Temple of Heaven in Beijing. The strengthening of the foundation of Global South cooperation should focus on building consensus and promoting cultural and people-to-people exchanges. — Xinhua

Projections indicated that by 2030, three of the four largest economies in the world will be in the Global South, led by China, India and Indonesia, which can significantly alter the balance of power and influence in the near future.

ON Nov 13 to 15, 2024, I had the privilege of joining more than 100 international think tanks at the Second Global South Think Tanks Dialogue themed “Global South: Equality, Openness and Cooperation” held in Nanjing, China.

It was co-organised by the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, CPC Jiangsu Provincial Committee and China Council for BRICS Think-tank Corp.

The dialogue was attended by more than 100 distinguished scholars, researchers, panellists and participants coming from five continents, whereby individual country’s representatives presented their views in four parallel plenary sessions.

The themes of the sessions were “Addressing Challenges Together to Safeguard Peace and Security”, “Pursuing Open Development to Build Synergy for Development, “Upholding Fairness and Justice to Improve Global Governance” and “Deepening Mutual Learning Among Civilisations for Common Progress”.

The dialogue in Nanjing concluded with the establishment of The Global South Think Tanks Alliance, co-founded by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Media Group, Tsinghua University, Fudan University, Renmin University of China, and more than 200 domestic and international think tanks and universities.

The alliance is committed towards promoting mutual understanding and learning, as well as sharing of knowledge and resources amongst the Global South countries toward building a better world.

It involves collaborating to conduct joint-research on common subjects, issues and challenges in the pursuit of modernisation process, while preserving the civilisation and interests of different ethnic groups.

In building the foundation of the Global South cooperation, the Think Tanks Alliance will enhance policy communication flows among the Global South, forging consensus building and engaging consultations, as well as promoting cultural and people-to-people exchanges and cooperation.

The Global South includes Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia (excluding Israel), and Oceania (excluding Australia and New Zealand).

Regardless of multiple definitions, the Global South is a formidable entity.

Projections indicated that by 2030, three of the four largest economies in the world will be in the Global South, led by China, India and Indonesia, which can significantly alter the balance of power and influence in the near future.

With the global power balance shifting from bipolarity to multipolarity order, the rise of the Global South plays a pivotal role in the global economy, international relations and the formation of a multipolar order.

Since 1990s, the economies of the Global South have consistently outpaced the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of the Global North.

Notably, Global South economies make up 85% of the world’s population and their contributions to global GDP has expanded rapidly from 19% in 1990 to 42% in 2022.

The Global South lower and middle-income countries are experiencing a “youth bulge” and can reap a demographic dividend if their economies grow and income levels improve.

The young adults have a median age of almost 25, which is younger than the global average of 30.

Many countries in the Global South are endowed with abundant natural resources such as fossil fuels, minerals and agricultural products, while some countries have high production in lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite that are required for the global green energy transition.

Setting mostly natural resource-rich South countries on a path of sustainable and inclusive growth will depend on their continued investments in education, healthcare, human and physical capital, and building up institutions, as well as seeking technical and resources support from the international institutions.

Greater efforts are needed to expand access to better education and learning outcomes in enhancing the people skills and improve employability.

Global South countries must implement pragmatic policies and impactful socio-economic programmes to support the pace of economic growth that will create better income employment, improve living standards, reduce the level of poverty, and help to narrow the growth divergence between the developed and less developed countries.

Governments need to enhance the investment climate, making business environment more friendly and conducive, as well as de-risk their economies to attract and boost both domestic and foreign investment.

What roles can the developed South countries play?

Developed countries should help developing and underdeveloped countries to expand their economies through policy advice, capacity-building activities, and concessional financial and resources support.

Assistance should be targeted at enhancing national trade policies and regulations, developing infrastructure, and building technology capacity, digitalisation, new knowledge and manpower development.

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China’s Belt and Road Initiative represents a key pillar of the global community’s shared future, promoting higher- quality development through the financing of public infrastructure and transportation projects to improve connectivity, facilitate trade and people-people movement, and opening up and sharing China’s development opportunities with the rest of the world.

China International Import Expo, which has been running for eight consecutive years, provides strong evidence of China’s commitment to opening up to the world.

China also offers certain socio-economic initiatives as part of its Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s outreach.

The availability of financing at reasonable terms for the development of Global South countries is essential.

These include innovative financing solutions and new funding sources, as well as currency swaps.

China has emerged as the new major financier of the Global South economies.

The New Development Bank (NDB), formerly referred to as the BRICS Development Bank, is a multilateral development bank established by the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

The NBD will support public or private projects through loans, guarantees, equity participation and other financial instruments.

Additionally, Global South countries are encouraged to use their local currencies for the settlement of trade among member states.

While the deepening of economic and financial integration via cross-border trade and financial flows can help the Global South countries to integrate into the world economy, the world free-trade international architecture is experiencing unsustainable inertia, blamed on an aggressive and protectionist trade agenda by some advanced economies.

The biggest disappointment is the dysfunction of the World Trade Organisation, which is supposed to promote free trade deal, but is unable to manage the disruptive trade and technology war between China and the United States.

Additionally, it failed to push forward its agenda to address current global challenges such as climate change, unfair trade practices, inequality, and underdevelopment.

As a result, Global South countries often face unfavourable trade conditionas and unbalanced investment frameworks due to the protectionist policies of advanced economies.

Hence, key areas for cooperation should include reinforcing the multilateral trading system, restructuring development finance and global financial architecture, and ensuring the availability of climate mitigation financin.

Amid economic influences and geopolitical shifts, the Global South is on the march with enhanced political visibility.

Cooperation among peer countries has helped the Global South to have a “louder voice” and member states are increasingly asserting themselves on the global stage.

For example, China brokered a surprise detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023.

Both China and Brazil have also made efforts to unite developing countries behind a plan to end the war in Ukraine.

With the vast size of this bloc, the united Global South can be a formidable force capable of challenging the profound changes in the current international political and economic systems to better serve the development needs of its member states.

The Global South countries’ economic growth and investment prospects look promising in the years ahead.

The ability of the bloc members to advocate shared common issues that benefit their interests, regardless of geographical boundaries, and choose its own path will solidify its significance, while navigating the geopolitically-driven fragmentation of trade and investment flows.

Going forward, as more Global South countries join BRICS as full members, partner countries, or in the “BRICS Plus” format, the collective strength of the Global South can be harnessed to build together a better community with a shared future for mankind.

Hence, building trustworthy relationships, friendships, and communities, as well as international people-to-people exchanges and cooperation, hold the key to maintaining sound relations among member states.

The consolidation of the foundation of Global South cooperation must give full play to the role of building consensus and carrying out various forms of cultural and people-to-people exchanges.

By offering rational analysis to address misinterpretations and misjudgments, and deepening mutual trust and learning in a professional way, the Global South Think Tanks Alliance will help people around the world form a more comprehensive and objective understanding of the Global South cooperation.

In conclusion, the diversity of the Global South countries will become a formidable force in the shaping of the international order, which has been dominated by the Global North.

An empowered Global South is inevitable, and its rise will foster unity among diverse member countries, demanding a more equitable world order.

Lee Heng Guie is the executive director of the Socio-Economic Research Centre. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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China slams US latest chip curbs, vowing resolute measures to defend Chinese firms’ legitimate interests

A chip manufacture machine Photo: VCG

China on Monday vowed to take resolute measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises in response to reports that the US implemented a new round of chip export restrictions targeting China. 

The US latest export control measures targeting China further tighten export controls on China involving semiconductor manufacturing equipment, storage chips and other items, add 136 Chinese entities to the export control entity list, and expand long-arm jurisdiction, interfering in trade between China and third countries. This is a typical act of economic coercion and non-market behavior, a spokesperson from China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said after the US unveiled its latest semiconductor export controls on China on Monday.

The US talks one way and acts another, continuously broadening the concept of national security, abusing export control measures, and engaging in unilateral bullying. China firmly opposes this, the MOFCOM spokesperson said.    

The semiconductor industry is highly globalized, and the abuse of control measures by the US seriously impedes normal economic and trade exchanges among countries, seriously undermines market rules and international economic and trade order, and seriously threatens the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. The global semiconductor industry, including US companies, has been seriously affected. China will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, the MOFCOM spokesperson noted.

Responding to a media question regarding the matter, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian also said at a regular press briefing on Monday that China firmly opposes the US' overstretching the concept of national security, abusing export controls, and maliciously blocking and suppressing China. 

This type of behavior seriously violates the laws of market economy and the principle of fair competition, disrupts international economic and trade order, destabilizes global industrial and supply chains, and will eventually harm the interests of all countries, Lin said. 

"China will take resolute measures to firmly defend the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies," Lin said.

The US on Monday launched its third crackdown in three years on China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to companies including chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group, among other moves, Reuters reported on Monday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The move also hit Chinese chip toolmakers Piotech and SiCarrier Technology with new export restrictions as part of the package, Reuters reported.

When calling the investor hotline, Global Times on Monday learned from an employee with Piotech that they have taken note of the reports.   

We will actively respond to it if the news is true, the employee said, adding that their US-related business accounts for a relatively small proportion of Piotech's global business and therefore the impact will be limited.

The Chinese company is also ramping up efforts to strengthen substitution of domestic products (to reduce reliance on imports), according to the employee.

Another Chinese company who is also reportedly on the restriction list told the Global Times on Monday that they have looked into the news and are making preparations, but they would not provide further details until the restriction is released.

The reported export restrictions on chips by the Biden administration could disrupt the normal functioning of the global supply chain and industry chain, and potentially backfire on the US chip industry itself - China is a key market, and the development of the chip industry requires joint global efforts rather than by any single country, including the US, Gao Lingyun, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, told the Global Times on Monday.

On November 25, in response to an earlier report by Reuters which said the Biden administration is set to unveil new export restrictions on China soon, China's Foreign Ministry has already slammed the US' planned new restrictions on chip exports to China, and vowed to take resolute measures to firmly defend the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies.

Speaking at a regular press conference on Thursday, Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong said that China will "implement necessary measures" to safeguard the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese enterprises if the US continues to escalate export controls that target China.

Gao said that Chinese businesses have withstood US export curbs on China over the years. For the Biden administration, however, this move might represent its last large scale attempt to whip up US hegemony to try to suppress development of China's chip industry.   

The US crackdown targeting chip exports, though aimed at Chinese companies, could also backfire and hurt American industries, Li Yong, a senior research fellow at the China Association of International Trade, told the Global Times on Monday. "At first glance, these trade tactics appear to target Chinese businesses and industries. However, they are ultimately self-destructive and could harm the US even more," Li said, noting that "it's like cutting off its nose to spite its face."

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