Global power converge in Tianjin: SCO summit

 

Rehearsal footage released by China Central Television (CCTV) of the upcoming V-Day military parade. Photo: screenshot of CCTV

The Tiananmen Square and Chang'an Avenue in Beijing are ready to host the grand ceremony on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. On Monday, China Central Television (CCTV) revealed the specific arrangements for this event. 

The grand event includes a 70-minute military parade. The parade is an institutionalized arrangements for national commemorative parades, and key component of the commemorative activities, carrying significant political and historical importance, per the CCTV report. 

The military parade is conducted in two steps: a military review and a march-past. 

In the military review part, the troops will line up along the Chang'an Avenue, to receive review from President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission. During the parade march-past, airborne flag-guarding echelons, foot formations, battle flag formations, armament columns and aerial echelons will pass through or fly across Tiananmen Square in order. 

A total of 45 formations and echelons will be involved in the parade.

The airborne flag-guarding echelons, composed of multiple helicopter types in various formations, will lead the parade. By escorting the flags, forming symbolic characters, and displaying banners, the echelons will reflect the nation's growing prosperity and the military's continuous development under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, proclaiming to the world the great truth of the inevitable victory of justice, peace, and the people, according to the CCTV report.

Foot formations will reflect "an old and a new," the report said. The "old" refers to veteran units from the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, with personnel primarily drawn from units descended from the Eighth Route Army, New Fourth Army, Northeast Anti-Japanese United Army, South China guerrilla forces, and militias from provinces with wartime revolutionary bases. The "new" reflects the modern structure of military forces, including the "three-in-one" system of armed forces.

The battle flag formations represent the heroic legacy forged in the flames of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression. From countless heroes and numerous meritorious flags, a selection of representative flags from different periods, regions, and units has been chosen. These flags, carried by personnel from their respective units, symbolize the enduring spirit of the war, reflecting the people's armed forces' fearless resolve and forward momentum in the face of challenges, per the report.

The armament columns are organized into combat groups based on real combat scenarios, including ground combat, maritime combat, air and missile defense, information warfare, unmanned combat, logistics support, and strategic strike groups. Many of these feature cutting-edge equipment representing the evolution of modern warfare, including some critical national assets, fully demonstrating the People's Liberation Army's formidable capabilities to triumph in modern conflicts.

The aerial echelons, organized in a modular and systematic manner, will consist of advanced early warning and command aircraft, fighters, bombers, transport planes, and more, covering nearly all active main combat aircraft types of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Many are high-profile "star" equipment, with some making their public debut, fully showcasing the leapfrog development of the PLA's air combat capabilities.

What's more, over 1,000 personnel will form the largest joint military band in the history of parades of the People's Republic of China, performing in front of the Monument to the People's Heroes on Tiananmen Square, per the CCTV report. 

The band will play well-known classic songs from the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, evoking memories of that arduous era and honoring the heroes and martyrs who sacrificed their lives for national independence and freedom. New compositions reflecting contemporary themes and the vigor of a strong military will also be performed for the first time in Tiananmen Square.

Global Times

Goodbye 2023; Hello 2024

 

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2023 will be remembered as a tipping point year when almost all mega-trends of finance, technology, trade, geopolitics, war and climate heating showed signs of acceleration in speed, scale and scope.

. 2023 will be remembered as a tipping point year when almost all mega-trends of finance, technology, trade, geopolitics, war and climate heating showed signs of acceleration in speed, scale and scope.

You can call this a state of permacrises, a series of cascading shocks that seem to be building up to a bigger shock sometime in the future.

In finance, the year began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on 10 March 2023, followed by Signature Bank. The Fed and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) acted fast to guarantee all deposits to stop what is now called “Twitter Deposit Runs” against banks. In Switzerland, Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS on 19 March, after the bank lost nearly US$ 75 billion worth of deposits in three months. Swiss financial credibility was hurt when Credit Suisse AT1 (Tier One bonds) bond-holders became outraged that they should suffer write-downs ahead of equity holders.

Although prompt action by the Fed and Suisse financial authorities averted global contagion and restored calm to financial markets, the Fed hiked interest rates four times in 2023 to 5.25-5.5% to tackle inflation. This month, gold prices touched a record high of US$2,100 per ounce, signalling anticipated inflation abatement, but escalated geopolitical tensions.

In technology, 2023 marked the seismic arrival of generative artificial intelligence (AI), through the public launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. Commercialized AI is considered the next big thing after the internet, sparking off a US tech stock rally, led by the Magnificent Seven companies in AI-related software and hardware. The rally averted a year of portfolio losses in financial markets hurt by interest rate hikes.

In trade, the latest UNCTAD Global Trade Update found that global trade will shrink by 5% to US$ 30.7 trillion in 2023, with trade in goods declining by nearly US$2 trillion, whereas trade in services would expand by US$500 billion. The outlook for 2024 is pessimistic because trade issues are now geopolitical, rather than purely market-driven. Global supply chains are either decoupling or de-risking to avoid possible sanctions which have been imposed for geopolitical reasons.

Geopolitics dominated headlines in 2023, as diplomacy played second fiddle to the militarization or weaponization of everything.

The biggest risk faced by businesses today is national security risk, in case companies or financial institutions are caught in geopolitical tit-for-tat arising from binary differences in values. Where national security is concerned, the business must bear all the costs of supply chain restructuring with no questions asked, or face possible existential shutdowns.

War broke out in Gaza/Israel In October with a scale of civilian slaughter more horrific and intense than the Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. The latest war count to June 2023 by The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 (1 May 2022–30 June 2023), showed global fatalities and events increasing horrendously by 14% and 28% respectively.

The authoritative Stockholm International Peace and Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that 56 countries were involved in armed conflict in 2022, 5 more than in 2021. Three (Ukraine, Myanmar and Nigeria) involved 10,000 or more estimated deaths, with 16 cases involving 1000–9999 deaths. Expect more conflicts when natural disasters hurt food, water and energy supplies.

As 100,000 or so delegates leave the United Arab Emirates at the end of the COP28 this month, the UN painted an upbeat tone that the Conference marked the “beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era.  Scientists confirm that we have already passed the point of being able to limit carbon emissions for the average global temperature to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.   Most studies show that if most governments fail to meet their current commitments to NetZero, the planet will be struggling with temperatures above 2 degrees Celsius, meaning more natural disasters, rising seas and/or migration/conflicts.  Every three weeks, the US has experienced at least one natural disaster costing more than $1 billion in damages.  

As one cynic said, natural disasters are where the rich just pay in money, but the poor pay in their lives.

Putting all these mega-trend micro-disasters together suggests that a mega-system disaster may be on the cards. Historically, these seismic-scale disturbances are settled through a massive recession, like the 1930s Great Depression, or wars, which wipe out debt and make everyone poorer.

So far, the world has neglected to address these looming issues by either denying or postponement - printing more money and incurring more debt. Painkillers do not fix structural imbalances.

As my favourite poet TS Eliot said, the world ends not with a bang, but with a whimper. The world is in permacrises, with no one fully in charge. Democratic governance is in flux when no one can agree on the problems, let alone the solutions.

2024 will see some decisive but messy elections, especially in the US where both Presidential candidates may either be impeached or convicted by then. This cannot auger well for everyone, because 2023 marks the turning point when the US lost the respect of the Global South over its catastrophic handling of Ukraine and Gaza, both of which will be fought to the last Ukrainian or Palestinian. The morality of allowing other people to fight and die for one’s benefit shows not hypocrisy but hegemonic-scale cowardice.

The bottom line is that there is no shortage of technology or money to deal with the global existential threats of climate change and social imbalances. We cannot align policy intent (what politicians say they will do) with the reality that current policies are not delivering.

If man-made or natural calamities are looming, do we mitigate or adapt? On a single planet, we can run but not hide. So each of us must decide to do what we can, rather than relying on politicians to fix themselves, let alone our problems.

There is a wise saying about Christmas charity: give with warm hands. Do that now, or we will be giving with boiled hands or none at all.

Best wishes for 2024.

Andrew Sheng, Asia News Network

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Goodbye 2023, hello 2024